Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Merrimack Warriors
73 66
FINAL Conference
Manhattan Jaspers
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference · Lawler Arena · January 4, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MRMK -6.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Under
Money MRMK -325 / MAN +260
Model Predictions
Spread Total MRMK win
Actual MRMK +7 139 Won
Massey MRMK -8.4 (-1.4)
Massey Totals 150.5 (-11.5)
Bradley-Terry 75%
Weighted B-T 82%
Efficiency Plus ML MRMK -5.5 (+1.5) 141.7 (-2.7) 76%
Baseline Tuned ML MRMK -6.2 (+0.8) 140.3 (-1.3) 75%
Baseline ML MRMK -6.6 (+0.4) 141.5 (-2.5) 77%
Baseline Plus ML MRMK -5.6 (+1.4) 142.2 (-3.2) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 15, 2025 MAN 7975 MRMK
Jan 12, 2025 MRMK 6962 MAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MRMK MAN
Overall 23-11 12-20
Conference 17-3 8-12
Home 11-0 7-7
Away 9-8 3-12
Neutral 3-3 2-1
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 68.5 72.4
Avg Pts Against 66.5 79.6
Massey -6.3 (#261) -10.9 (#323)
Bradley-Terry -0.33 (#207) -0.81 (#246)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.63 (#211) -1.45 (#262)
RPI 0.469 (#234) 0.470 (#232)
Shooting & Four Factors MRMK MAN
FG% 39.3% 42.5%
3PT% 30.7% 34.1%
REB / G 27.7 32.0
OREB / G 8.2 10.1
AST / TO 1.20 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.8% 48.7%
TOV% 15.2% 16.4%
ORB% 23.5% 27.4%
FT Rate 29.5% 29.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 54.4%
Opp TOV% 20.0% 17.3%
DRB% 57.5% 59.5%
Opp FT Rate 29.6% 16.3%

Game Analysis

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