Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MAN +120 MRMK -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MRMK -0.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -0.4 (+4.4) | 138.9 (+15.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -0.1 (+4.1) | 137.6 (+16.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -0.1 (+4.1) | 137.5 (+16.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -0.1 (+3.9) | 137.8 (+16.2) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MRMK 73 – 66 MAN |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRMK 69 – 62 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#258) | -2.0 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#240) | 0.04 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#263) | -0.20 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#226) | 0.533 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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