Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -192 IONA +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +45 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -4.6 (+40.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -2.4 (+42.6) | 143.1 (-22.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -2.2 (+42.8) | 139.1 (-18.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -2.4 (+42.6) | 140.0 (-19.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -2.6 (+42.4) | 144.0 (-23.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2025 | IONA 75 – 71 MRST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MRST 70 – 65 IONA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IONA 71 – 64 MRST |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MRST 68 – 64 IONA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | IONA 76 – 55 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#166) | -0.7 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#212) | 0.38 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#209) | 0.28 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#196) | 0.516 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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