Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MRST -188 IONA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -3.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -2.3 (-9.3) | 131.1 (+3.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -1.3 (-8.3) | 129.9 (+5.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -2.7 (-9.7) | 129.3 (+5.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -3.4 (-10.4) | 130.7 (+4.3) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MRST 83 – 38 IONA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | IONA 75 – 71 MRST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MRST 70 – 65 IONA |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MRST 68 – 64 IONA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | IONA 76 – 55 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#196) | -2.1 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#220) | -0.71 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#236) | -0.73 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#219) | 0.483 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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