Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +21 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -15.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -13.9 (+7.1) | 138.2 (-7.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -13.2 (+7.8) | 137.9 (-6.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -13.5 (+7.5) | 140.0 (-9.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -13.1 (+7.9) | 140.9 (-9.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MRST 83 – 38 IONA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | IONA 75 – 71 MRST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MRST 70 – 65 IONA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IONA 71 – 64 MRST |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MRST 68 – 64 IONA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-1 | 5-10 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#67) | -6.2 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#85) | -1.27 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#90) | -1.55 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#25) | 0.444 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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