Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | IONA -175 MRST +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -0.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -2.7 (-2.3) | 133.2 (+1.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -1.1 (-3.9) | 131.8 (+3.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -2.4 (-2.6) | 133.7 (+1.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -1.6 (-3.4) | 133.9 (+1.1) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MRST 83 – 38 IONA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | IONA 75 – 71 MRST |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IONA 71 – 64 MRST |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MRST 68 – 64 IONA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | IONA 76 – 55 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 20-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#304) | -3.5 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#300) | 0.84 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#291) | 0.36 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#314) | 0.524 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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