Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | IONA -300 MRST +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | IONA -3.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -0.7 (-4.7) | 140.4 (-8.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -3.2 (-7.2) | 136.3 (-4.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -1.3 (-5.3) | 138.5 (-6.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -0.9 (-4.9) | 139.2 (-7.2) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MRST 83 – 38 IONA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | IONA 75 – 71 MRST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MRST 70 – 65 IONA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IONA 71 – 64 MRST |
| Mar 12, 2023 | IONA 76 – 55 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#172) | 2.9 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#264) | 0.50 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#252) | 0.11 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#311) | 0.459 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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