Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | MRST -170 IONA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +4 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -6.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -4.9 (-8.9) | 130.4 (+15.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -3.8 (-7.8) | 131.2 (+14.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -4.5 (-8.5) | 131.0 (+15.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -5.0 (-9.0) | 130.6 (+15.4) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MRST 83 – 38 IONA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MRST 70 – 65 IONA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IONA 71 – 64 MRST |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MRST 68 – 64 IONA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | IONA 76 – 55 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-10 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#226) | -7.3 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#148) | -0.92 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#177) | -1.33 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#153) | 0.457 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 39.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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