Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | USF -395 UAB +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +3 | 215 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -8.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (+51.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -6.3 (-9.3) | 156.3 (+58.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -6.2 (-9.2) | 158.3 (+56.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -7.2 (-10.2) | 154.7 (+60.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -6.8 (-9.8) | 155.0 (+60.0) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | USF 82 – 69 UAB |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UAB 85 – 78 USF |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UAB 92 – 83 USF |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UAB 93 – 83 USF |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UAB 75 – 71 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-9 |
| Away | 9-3 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#62) | 5.1 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#85) | -0.02 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#84) | 0.43 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#75) | 0.474 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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