Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | USF -154 UAB +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +10 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -3.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -2.5 (-12.5) | 147.0 (+29.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -1.2 (-11.2) | 146.0 (+30.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -3.3 (-13.3) | 145.9 (+30.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -3.0 (-13.0) | 146.4 (+29.6) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | USF 82 – 69 UAB |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UAB 109 – 106 USF |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UAB 85 – 78 USF |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UAB 92 – 83 USF |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UAB 75 – 71 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#87) | 3.5 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#54) | 1.15 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#70) | 1.18 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#34) | 0.562 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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