Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | USF +130 UAB -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +9 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -0.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -0.8 (-9.8) | 156.0 (+19.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -0.8 (-9.8) | 156.2 (+18.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -1.2 (-10.2) | 155.9 (+19.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -0.8 (-9.8) | 156.5 (+18.5) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | USF 82 – 69 UAB |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UAB 109 – 106 USF |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UAB 85 – 78 USF |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UAB 93 – 83 USF |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UAB 75 – 71 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#172) | 2.7 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#188) | -0.47 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#188) | -0.42 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#204) | 0.473 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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