Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -420 USF +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +7 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -8.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -8.8 (-1.8) | 158.3 (+4.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -8.1 (-1.1) | 156.2 (+6.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -8.1 (-1.1) | 155.8 (+7.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -8.2 (-1.2) | 157.9 (+5.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | USF 82 – 69 UAB |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UAB 109 – 106 USF |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UAB 92 – 83 USF |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UAB 93 – 83 USF |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UAB 75 – 71 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#114) | -2.5 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#151) | -0.44 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#146) | -0.59 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#150) | 0.472 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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