Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | UAB +130 USF -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +13 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -1.6 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -1.4 (-11.6) | 166.0 (-15.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -0.8 (-12.2) | 166.4 (-15.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -1.0 (-12.0) | 162.0 (-11.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -0.7 (-12.3) | 163.7 (-12.7) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | UAB 109 – 106 USF |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UAB 85 – 78 USF |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UAB 92 – 83 USF |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UAB 93 – 83 USF |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UAB 75 – 71 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-9 | 13-2 |
| Away | 10-2 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#110) | 9.1 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#128) | 0.87 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#124) | 1.56 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#148) | 0.556 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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