Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -4.0 Push |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | UAB -190 USF +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -0.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -0.6 (+3.4) | 150.3 (-4.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -3.6 (+0.4) | 146.1 (-0.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -0.9 (+3.1) | 148.2 (-2.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -0.6 (+3.4) | 150.2 (-4.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | USF 82 – 69 UAB |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UAB 109 – 106 USF |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UAB 85 – 78 USF |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UAB 92 – 83 USF |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UAB 93 – 83 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#215) | 1.8 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#139) | 0.17 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#178) | 0.25 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#146) | 0.495 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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