Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -155 UIC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +7 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -3.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -3.1 (+3.9) | 140.9 (-15.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -2.4 (+4.6) | 136.3 (-11.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -2.2 (+4.8) | 136.9 (-11.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -2.8 (+4.2) | 139.5 (-14.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | VAL 71 – 67 UIC |
| Mar 7, 2025 | VAL 67 – 50 UIC |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UIC 77 – 73 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UIC 81 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 20, 2024 | VAL 84 – 77 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#208) | -2.4 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#269) | -1.47 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#251) | -1.41 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#301) | 0.440 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 60.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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