Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +115 UIC -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +7 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -0.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -0.3 (-7.3) | 153.3 (+1.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -1.6 (-5.4) | 151.9 (+3.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -0.2 (-7.2) | 151.4 (+3.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -0.2 (-6.8) | 152.8 (+2.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | VAL 71 – 67 UIC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | VAL 66 – 59 UIC |
| Mar 7, 2025 | VAL 67 – 50 UIC |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UIC 77 – 73 VAL |
| Jan 20, 2024 | VAL 84 – 77 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#201) | 1.6 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#182) | 0.84 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#193) | 0.75 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#192) | 0.564 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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