Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +150 UIC -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +7 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -2.9 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -1.7 (+8.7) | 133.6 (+27.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -2.7 (+9.7) | 133.1 (+27.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -2.0 (+9.0) | 133.4 (+27.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -2.4 (+9.4) | 133.7 (+27.3) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | VAL 71 – 67 UIC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | VAL 66 – 59 UIC |
| Mar 7, 2025 | VAL 67 – 50 UIC |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UIC 77 – 73 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UIC 81 – 74 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 4-16 |
| Home | 6-11 | 6-9 |
| Away | 1-13 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#286) | -0.0 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#289) | -0.68 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#266) | -0.23 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#277) | 0.471 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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