Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UIC -275 VAL +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -7.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -6.8 (-2.8) | 152.8 (-2.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -6.3 (-2.3) | 149.4 (+0.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -6.6 (-2.6) | 150.7 (-0.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -5.9 (-1.9) | 151.4 (-1.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | VAL 71 – 67 UIC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | VAL 66 – 59 UIC |
| Mar 7, 2025 | VAL 67 – 50 UIC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UIC 81 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 20, 2024 | VAL 84 – 77 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#154) | -4.0 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#137) | -0.55 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#133) | -0.86 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#123) | 0.457 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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