Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UIC -340 VAL +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +4 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UIC -7.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -6.3 (-10.3) | 139.2 (-1.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -6.0 (-10.0) | 137.0 (+1.0) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -7.3 (-11.3) | 137.1 (+0.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -7.0 (-11.0) | 138.5 (-0.5) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | VAL 66 – 59 UIC |
| Mar 7, 2025 | VAL 67 – 50 UIC |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UIC 77 – 73 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UIC 81 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 20, 2024 | VAL 84 – 77 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#107) | -0.0 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#148) | 0.02 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#134) | 0.05 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#135) | 0.480 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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