Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UIC -170 VAL +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +17 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | UIC -4.2 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-39.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -3.1 (-20.1) | 148.3 (-31.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -3.0 (-20.0) | 145.3 (-28.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -3.0 (-20.0) | 147.2 (-30.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -3.2 (-20.2) | 146.6 (-29.6) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | VAL 71 – 67 UIC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | VAL 66 – 59 UIC |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UIC 77 – 73 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UIC 81 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 20, 2024 | VAL 84 – 77 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#156) | -3.9 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#135) | -0.59 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#138) | -0.88 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#125) | 0.456 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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