Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MERC -135 LEM +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +14 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -1.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -1.3 (+12.7) | 134.3 (-0.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -0.1 (+14.1) | 137.9 (-3.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -0.1 (+14.1) | 138.1 (-4.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -0.5 (+13.5) | 137.9 (-3.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | LEM 58 – 57 MERC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MERC 82 – 78 LEM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | LEM 79 – 63 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-14 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#301) | -7.3 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#339) | -1.66 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.45 (#341) | -2.43 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#338) | 0.437 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.8% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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