Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | LEM -190 MERC +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +16 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -4.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -1.7 (+14.3) | 138.1 (+3.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LEM -1.9 (+14.1) | 135.3 (+6.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | LEM -2.3 (+13.7) | 138.0 (+4.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -2.1 (+13.9) | 137.6 (+4.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | LEM 58 – 57 MERC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MERC 74 – 60 LEM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MERC 82 – 78 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 9-7 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-16 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#340) | -12.3 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#316) | -1.85 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#313) | -2.43 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#322) | 0.419 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 26.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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