Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MERC -130 LEM +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -4.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -4.2 (-0.2) | 145.2 (+14.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MERC -4.3 (-0.3) | 143.9 (+16.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MERC -3.8 (+0.2) | 145.1 (+14.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -3.7 (+0.3) | 145.2 (+14.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | LEM 58 – 57 MERC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MERC 74 – 60 LEM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | LEM 79 – 63 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 4-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 81.4 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#344) | -13.8 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#307) | -2.06 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#318) | -2.79 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#308) | 0.400 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 26.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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