Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LEM -148 MERC +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +1 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -2.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -1.2 (-0.2) | 133.7 (-18.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LEM -2.9 (-1.9) | 134.6 (-19.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | LEM -1.7 (-0.7) | 133.7 (-18.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -1.8 (-0.8) | 135.2 (-20.2) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MERC 74 – 60 LEM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MERC 82 – 78 LEM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | LEM 79 – 63 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-12 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#290) | -7.6 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#297) | -1.72 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#301) | -2.24 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#299) | 0.434 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.