Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -305 STO +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +9 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -12.7 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -10.0 (-19.0) | 141.1 (-12.1) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -8.1 (-17.1) | 139.8 (-10.8) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -9.5 (-18.5) | 139.8 (-10.8) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -9.8 (-18.8) | 140.1 (-11.1) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | WAG 68 – 57 STO |
| Feb 21, 2025 | WAG 63 – 57 STO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | STO 73 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STO 71 – 61 WAG |
| Jan 15, 2024 | WAG 64 – 54 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-12 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#235) | -13.6 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#242) | -4.00 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#228) | -5.37 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#202) | 0.334 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 14.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 11.8% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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