Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -140 STO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +6 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | STO -1.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -0.8 (+6.8) | 120.2 (-0.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -1.4 (+7.4) | 124.5 (-4.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -1.1 (+7.1) | 126.2 (-6.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -2.1 (+8.1) | 125.2 (-5.2) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | WAG 68 – 57 STO |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STO 69 – 60 WAG |
| Jan 31, 2025 | STO 73 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STO 71 – 61 WAG |
| Jan 15, 2024 | WAG 64 – 54 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#344) | -8.6 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#327) | -1.27 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#342) | -1.59 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#328) | 0.444 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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