Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -250 STO +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +10 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -11.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -7.7 (+2.3) | 132.7 (-14.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -8.0 (+2.0) | 130.8 (-12.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -8.5 (+1.5) | 131.8 (-13.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -8.9 (+1.1) | 129.7 (-11.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | WAG 68 – 57 STO |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STO 69 – 60 WAG |
| Feb 21, 2025 | WAG 63 – 57 STO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | STO 73 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STO 71 – 61 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 2-14 |
| Home | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Away | 9-10 | 0-19 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#294) | -15.1 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#263) | -3.14 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#295) | -3.95 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#271) | 0.383 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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