Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | STO +160 WAG -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +10 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -5.3 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -5.4 (+15.4) | 130.3 (+1.7) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -5.2 (+15.2) | 126.4 (+5.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -5.1 (+15.1) | 127.0 (+5.0) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -5.2 (+15.2) | 126.5 (+5.5) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | WAG 68 – 57 STO |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STO 69 – 60 WAG |
| Feb 21, 2025 | WAG 63 – 57 STO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | STO 73 – 61 WAG |
| Jan 15, 2024 | WAG 64 – 54 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 7-9 |
| Home | 4-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 0-19 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 64.1 |
| Massey | -15.1 (#352) | -6.3 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.58 (#360) | -1.17 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.29 (#359) | -1.66 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#350) | 0.433 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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