Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | STO -165 WAG +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | STO -6.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -4.3 (+7.7) | 127.3 (+6.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -2.9 (+9.1) | 125.3 (+8.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -4.1 (+7.9) | 126.1 (+7.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -4.0 (+8.0) | 126.9 (+7.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | WAG 68 – 57 STO |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STO 69 – 60 WAG |
| Feb 21, 2025 | WAG 63 – 57 STO |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STO 71 – 61 WAG |
| Jan 15, 2024 | WAG 64 – 54 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#308) | -12.1 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#278) | -1.52 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#283) | -2.63 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#296) | 0.421 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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