Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | STO -170 WAG +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +11 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | STO -1.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -0.2 (-10.8) | 131.5 (-6.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -1.1 (-12.1) | 131.3 (-6.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -0.7 (-11.7) | 129.6 (-4.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -0.2 (-11.2) | 130.4 (-5.4) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | STO 69 – 60 WAG |
| Feb 21, 2025 | WAG 63 – 57 STO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | STO 73 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STO 71 – 61 WAG |
| Jan 15, 2024 | WAG 64 – 54 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-15 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#330) | -10.5 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#345) | -2.54 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#347) | -3.31 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#337) | 0.393 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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