Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +160 NEV -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +1 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -4.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -4.3 (+3.3) | 142.4 (-11.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -4.1 (+3.1) | 141.4 (-10.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -4.5 (+3.5) | 141.4 (-10.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -3.9 (+2.9) | 142.4 (-11.4) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NEV 74 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-7 | 17-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#164) | 8.0 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#218) | 1.93 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#208) | 2.66 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#233) | 0.622 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 36.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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