Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -2000 FRES +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +25 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -16.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -15.5 (+9.5) | 147.8 (+15.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -17.2 (+7.8) | 148.0 (+15.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -15.2 (+9.8) | 145.2 (+17.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -14.2 (+10.8) | 144.8 (+18.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NEV 74 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#79) | -6.1 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#102) | -1.67 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#83) | -1.95 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#119) | 0.410 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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