Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -1000 FRES +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +15 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -13.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -11.6 (+3.4) | 139.9 (+17.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -13.0 (+2.0) | 138.9 (+18.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -11.8 (+3.2) | 139.6 (+17.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -11.4 (+3.6) | 139.6 (+17.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NEV 74 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#76) | -6.2 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#114) | -1.78 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#89) | -1.99 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#157) | 0.403 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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