Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +700 NEV -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +11 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -12.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -11.5 (+0.5) | 145.5 (-2.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -12.2 (+1.2) | 143.4 (-0.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -11.5 (+0.5) | 148.3 (-5.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -11.6 (+0.6) | 147.7 (-4.7) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NEV 74 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 8-12 |
| Home | 5-9 | 11-6 |
| Away | 1-14 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#272) | 9.7 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#290) | 0.75 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#293) | 1.50 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#275) | 0.538 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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