Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -850 FRES +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -10.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -11.3 (-1.3) | 143.1 (-15.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -12.2 (-2.2) | 142.3 (-14.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -10.3 (-0.3) | 142.3 (-14.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -10.6 (-0.6) | 143.9 (-15.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NEV 74 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 17-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#64) | 2.1 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#64) | 0.12 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#61) | 0.32 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#50) | 0.501 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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