Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -1600 FRES +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -17.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -15.8 (-7.8) | 140.6 (-0.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -15.9 (-7.9) | 140.5 (-0.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -15.4 (-7.4) | 140.2 (-0.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -15.2 (-7.2) | 141.1 (-1.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#43) | -2.8 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#16) | -0.26 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#23) | -0.25 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#32) | 0.473 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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