Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NIA +140 FAIR -166 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -5.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -5.0 (-3.0) | 135.9 (+22.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -5.8 (-2.2) | 135.4 (+22.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -6.1 (-1.9) | 134.8 (+23.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -5.0 (-3.0) | 136.7 (+21.3) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | FAIR 62 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 17, 2025 | FAIR 70 – 66 NIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NIA 65 – 63 FAIR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NIA 96 – 72 FAIR |
| Feb 25, 2023 | NIA 76 – 68 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -15.7 (#354) | -6.7 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#337) | -0.78 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.45 (#342) | -1.11 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#343) | 0.462 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 27.2 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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