Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -275 NIA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -7.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -5.9 (-7.9) | 146.5 (-18.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -5.6 (-7.6) | 145.8 (-17.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -5.8 (-7.8) | 147.0 (-19.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -5.3 (-7.3) | 146.6 (-18.6) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | FAIR 62 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | FAIR 83 – 75 NIA |
| Jan 17, 2025 | FAIR 70 – 66 NIA |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NIA 96 – 72 FAIR |
| Feb 25, 2023 | NIA 76 – 68 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#171) | -5.1 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#178) | -0.88 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#201) | -1.15 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#152) | 0.456 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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