Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -125 NIA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -1.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -0.3 (+3.7) | 136.2 (-0.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.6 (+2.4) | 133.6 (+2.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -0.6 (+3.4) | 135.7 (+0.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.2 (+3.8) | 135.9 (+0.1) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | FAIR 62 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | FAIR 83 – 75 NIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NIA 65 – 63 FAIR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NIA 96 – 72 FAIR |
| Feb 25, 2023 | NIA 76 – 68 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#322) | -7.7 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#280) | -1.13 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#302) | -1.72 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#273) | 0.439 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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