Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NIA +110 FAIR -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +24 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -2.4 (+26.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.9 (+25.9) | 148.1 (+19.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.2 (+26.2) | 147.0 (+21.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -2.3 (+26.3) | 149.3 (+18.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.2 (+26.2) | 148.5 (+19.5) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | FAIR 62 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | FAIR 83 – 75 NIA |
| Jan 17, 2025 | FAIR 70 – 66 NIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NIA 65 – 63 FAIR |
| Feb 25, 2023 | NIA 76 – 68 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#287) | -0.4 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#271) | -0.09 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#295) | -0.32 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#276) | 0.481 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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