Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -110 FAIR +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -3.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -1.7 (+6.3) | 130.0 (+14.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -1.4 (+6.6) | 128.3 (+15.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -1.8 (+6.2) | 128.5 (+15.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -2.4 (+5.6) | 128.8 (+15.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | FAIR 62 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | FAIR 83 – 75 NIA |
| Jan 17, 2025 | FAIR 70 – 66 NIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NIA 65 – 63 FAIR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NIA 96 – 72 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#246) | -4.0 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#225) | -1.02 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#242) | -1.13 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#218) | 0.468 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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