Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -550 NIA +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +1 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -13.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -9.9 (-8.9) | 135.3 (-12.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -10.7 (-9.7) | 138.0 (-15.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -11.8 (-10.8) | 137.4 (-14.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -12.2 (-11.2) | 137.6 (-14.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | FAIR 83 – 75 NIA |
| Jan 17, 2025 | FAIR 70 – 66 NIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NIA 65 – 63 FAIR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NIA 96 – 72 FAIR |
| Feb 25, 2023 | NIA 76 – 68 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#251) | -15.7 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#238) | -2.44 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#241) | -3.21 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#223) | 0.396 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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