Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | PSU +900 ILL -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -16.6 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -12.7 (+4.7) | 151.8 (-13.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -12.7 (+4.7) | 151.1 (-13.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -14.2 (+6.2) | 151.3 (-13.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -14.1 (+6.1) | 150.6 (-12.6) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2025 | ILL 91 – 52 PSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PSU 90 – 89 ILL |
| Mar 9, 2023 | PSU 79 – 76 ILL |
| Feb 15, 2023 | PSU 93 – 81 ILL |
| Dec 10, 2022 | PSU 74 – 59 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#137) | 22.3 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#131) | 3.23 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#150) | 4.77 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#139) | 0.618 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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