Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -320 PSU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +39 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -11.7 (+27.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -10.2 (+28.8) | 161.1 (-18.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -12.1 (+26.9) | 160.9 (-17.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -12.8 (+26.2) | 161.6 (-18.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -11.5 (+27.5) | 160.6 (-17.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | ILL 73 – 65 PSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PSU 90 – 89 ILL |
| Mar 9, 2023 | PSU 79 – 76 ILL |
| Feb 15, 2023 | PSU 93 – 81 ILL |
| Dec 10, 2022 | PSU 74 – 59 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 21.8 (#5) | 14.2 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#13) | 1.71 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.86 (#11) | 2.39 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#27) | 0.572 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 45.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.