Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -450 PSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +15 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -16.0 (-31.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -13.2 (-28.2) | 147.7 (-14.7) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -11.9 (-26.9) | 147.9 (-14.9) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -12.1 (-27.1) | 146.2 (-13.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -11.6 (-26.6) | 146.6 (-13.6) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | ILL 73 – 65 PSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ILL 91 – 52 PSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PSU 90 – 89 ILL |
| Mar 9, 2023 | PSU 79 – 76 ILL |
| Feb 15, 2023 | PSU 93 – 81 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#5) | 6.3 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#15) | 0.96 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#12) | 1.38 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#53) | 0.569 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 18.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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