Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -145 PSU +122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -2.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -1.2 (-4.2) | 139.9 (+15.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -2.5 (-5.5) | 140.1 (+14.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -1.8 (-4.8) | 141.4 (+13.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -1.9 (-4.9) | 140.5 (+14.5) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | ILL 73 – 65 PSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ILL 91 – 52 PSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PSU 90 – 89 ILL |
| Feb 15, 2023 | PSU 93 – 81 ILL |
| Dec 10, 2022 | PSU 74 – 59 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#27) | 9.6 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#39) | 1.68 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#36) | 2.19 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#61) | 0.551 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 18.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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