Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | PSU +240 ILL -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +1 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -7.6 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.7 (+6.7) | 156.4 (+22.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.0 (+6.0) | 154.6 (+24.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -6.3 (+7.3) | 155.6 (+23.4) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -6.3 (+7.3) | 156.7 (+22.3) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | ILL 73 – 65 PSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ILL 91 – 52 PSU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | PSU 79 – 76 ILL |
| Feb 15, 2023 | PSU 93 – 81 ILL |
| Dec 10, 2022 | PSU 74 – 59 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#92) | 17.1 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#124) | 2.48 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#105) | 3.15 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#166) | 0.620 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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