Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | PSU +138 ILL -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +12 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -1.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -1.3 (+13.3) | 142.5 (+31.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -2.0 (+14.0) | 141.5 (+32.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -2.0 (+14.0) | 142.7 (+31.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -1.4 (+13.4) | 142.5 (+31.5) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | ILL 73 – 65 PSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ILL 91 – 52 PSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PSU 90 – 89 ILL |
| Mar 9, 2023 | PSU 79 – 76 ILL |
| Dec 10, 2022 | PSU 74 – 59 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#63) | 13.9 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#68) | 2.21 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#58) | 2.68 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#109) | 0.579 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 17.4% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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