Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -600 NAU +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -14.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -10.4 (-1.4) | 136.1 (+8.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -10.4 (-1.4) | 137.7 (+7.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -10.1 (-1.1) | 134.5 (+10.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -10.8 (-1.8) | 135.2 (+9.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | MTST 79 – 50 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#124) | -7.3 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#178) | -1.33 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#167) | -1.64 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#149) | 0.407 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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