Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +125 MTST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -2.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -2.3 (+7.3) | 144.8 (+2.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -2.3 (+7.3) | 142.7 (+4.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -1.5 (+6.5) | 142.9 (+4.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -2.2 (+7.2) | 144.2 (+2.8) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | MTST 79 – 50 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 6-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#319) | -3.9 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#232) | -0.57 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#256) | -0.69 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#227) | 0.459 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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